Thursday 17 November 2016

Sure though thy feet, proud Britain, have a care. A female Prime Minister’s reign may see thee trip – beware! 汝の足が地に付いていようとも、誇り高き英国よ、気を付けよ。女性首相の統治下でつまづくかも知れぬ。-用心せよ!

“The number 73 will be your downfall.”
An oracle given at Delphi to Emperor Nero, who was later killed by a 73 year-old.

 “With silver spears you may conquer the world.”
An oracle given at Delphi to King Philip II of Macedon, who then controlled silver mines, using the money to bribe others and gain great power

 “Be kind to pigeons, for one day there will be a statue of you.”
The best fortune I have ever gotten in a Chinese fortune-cookie 

I sometimes envy fortune-tellers.  It seems like such an easy job.
You need to spend time making yourself look weird and in touch with mystical powers.  Then you give some vague predictions, which could never be proven untrue - it helps to say what the listener wants to hear.  Then you just advertise and wait for the gullible people to come to you.

It’s a bit like being a politician.  I heard a commentator describe Theresa May, Britain’s Prime Minister, as the “high priestess of Brexit”.
It was a clever and apt description.  He was suggesting that she was like the high priestess who interpreted the Oracle at Delphi.  In ancient Greece, the words of the god Apollo were supposed to be given to people who asked questions (and paid money), and the high priestess would interpret the god’s answer and present it to the world.

Whenever Theresa May faces difficult questions or opposition, she mentions the Brexit vote.  The trouble is, only she is allowed to interpret what it means.  We voted to leave the EU, but did we vote to have a close or a distant relationship with the EU once we leave?  Nobody is allowed to ask, because Theresa May is the high priestess of Brexit, and only she can interpret the vote’s meaning.
There are many famous examples of the Oracle at Delphi predicting the future, and that future coming true.

The Oracle predicted that the Roman Emperor Nero should beware the number 73.  He decided that this meant he would live until he was 73.  Instead, the man responsible for forcing his suicide at the age of 30 was 73 years old.
King Croesus of Lydia wanted to know if he should invade the great kingdom of Persia.  The Oracle told him, “If you attack Persia, you will destroy a mighty kingdom.”  He was delighted, attacked, and then was utterly defeated.  The mighty kingdom he destroyed was his own.

These examples, though, demonstrate the tricky nature of predictions.  If the prediction is unclear enough, you can always go back later and find a way to make it seem true.  If the man who was responsible for Nero’s death hadn’t been 73, then perhaps he would have walked 73 miles to get to him, or killed him 73 months after the prediction was made.  Or perhaps he would have had 73 coins in his pocket.
Using the Brexit vote as some kind of Oracle has the same problems.  It is easy to claim to know what the vote means (beyond the simple desire to leave the EU at the time the question was asked), but it is impossible to prove or disprove anything further.

Here’s another warning for Theresa May, or high priestesses, or fortune-tellers generally.  Be careful not to upset the client.  When the Oracle at Delphi criticised Emperor Nero for having killed his own mother (and warned him about 73), he had the high priestess taken out and burned alive.  And when Alexander the Great asked the Oracle if he would conquer the world and the Oracle refused to answer, he went into the temple, pulled the high priestess out by the hair and threatened her until she said, “You are invincible!
I predicted that Britain would vote to remain in the EU, and that Donald Trump would lose the Presidential election.  If I’m going to succeed as a fortune-teller, I’m going to have to make my predictions a bit vaguer.  So I’ll start with this week’s blog title.  Notice the use of the word “may”.

Vocabulary:
have a care – Take care; be careful
one’s downfall – the end, death, defeat etc. of one

to bribe someone – to make corrupt payments to someone
weird – strange; supernatural

mystical – having a spiritual significance beyond human understanding
vague – unclear or poorly defined

gullible – easily fooled or tricked
apt – appropriate or fitting

utterly – totally; completely
tricky – difficult

invincible - unbeatable

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